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One dark early morning in 2006 or
2007. 3:30 AM (EST).Is this what Americans will suddenly see on their television screens -- frantic reporters and anchor people hastily preparing to inform the viewing public that the unthinkable has happened?NEWSFLASH: THE LAUNCHING OF TWENTY-FIVE LAND-BASED CHINESE CSS-4 LONG-RANGE MISSILES, EACH ARMED WITH TWELVE FIVE-MEGATON NUCLEAR WARHEADS, HAS BEEN DETECTED BY NORAD. DESTINATION: THE UNITED STATES MAINLAND. SPECIFIC CITIES TARGETED: UNKNOWN. IN ADDITION, TWO CHINESE NUCLEAR SUBMARINES HAVE BEEN SPOTTED NINETY MILES OFF THE COAST OF NEW YORK CITY. US SUBMARINES ARE PREPARING TO ENGAGE ... |
Very soon, due to a new change in the strategic balance and recent international developments, the above nightmare scenerio may take place.
The earliest foundation of the worsening crisis between China and the United States began on March 18, 2000, with the election of pro-independence candidate Cheng Shui-bian. Although Beijing announced that it would take a "wait and see" attitude, it has since been made abundantly clear that the rulers of this communist military dictatorship will settle for nothing less than re-unification between Taiwan and China -- at any price.
This alone would tend to make armed conflict between the two great nuclear powers of the Pacific INEVITABLE. The infamous "white paper" irrevocably re-defined cross-Straits policy. Linkage was made regarding the United States of America: if Washington defended Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, nuclear missiles would be fired against the US mainland. Both President Jiang Zemin and Prime Minister Zhu Rongji each placed his reputation and "honour" on the line by promising this form of military action if the island pursues independence.
Here is the initial news report of the "white paper":
February 21, 2000 -- 'WHITE PAPER' WAR POLICY (Reuters and AP) -- China will be forced to use "drastic measures, including military force" if Taiwan indefinitely delays negotiations aimed at reuniting with the mainland, declared a policy "white paper" issued by the State Council, China's cabinet. NBC's Eric Baculinao reported from Beijing that the policy represented a dramatic lowering of the threshold for armed conflict across the Taiwan Strait, which also means raising the risk of a confrontation or war between the United States and China. The new policy also represents a stunning and dangerous revision of China's long-standing preconditions for initiating military attacks on Taiwan. Previously, China's position was to resort to force only in the event of foreign intervention or outright declaration of independence by Taiwan. Taiwan's continued refusal to talk is now also a cause of possible military action.
Underscoring the threat of force, the Hong Kong media, which is widely followed in Taiwan, reported over the weekend that Chinese President Jiang Zemin was in southern China touring military bases that would contribute to any invasion force of the island. The tactics ominously echoed Taiwan's last presidential election four years ago. Then, China tested missiles near the island to dampen independence sentiment, and the United States sent in warships to bolster Taiwan, once a close Cold War ally, raising tensions in the area to their highest in more than 30 years. Beijing's policy paper included a warning to the United States, calling on Washington to scale back arms sales to Taiwan and "not to stand in the way of the reunification of China." Taiwan bought 150 F-16 jet fighters from the United States and 60 Mirage fighters from France in the 1990s, enraging Beijing. China has warned the United States against including Taiwan in a proposed Theater Missile Defense system.
The following report from the Washington Times dated March 1, 2000, also leaves no doubt that Beijing has the will and the means to carry out the unthinkable: a nuclear attack against the United States:
March 1, 2000 -- BEIJING (Washington Times) -- BEIJING THREATENS NUCLEAR MISSILE STRIKES AGAINST UNITED STATES -- China stepped up its war of words over Taiwan yesterday, bluntly threatening to fire long-range nuclear missiles at the United States if it defends the island. The warning, published in the official People's Liberation Army newspaper, comes as a U.S. aircraft carrier and two cruise-missile destroyers recently began exercises off Japan. Defense officials said the warships could be sent to the Taiwan Strait in a crisis.
The official military newspaper, Liberation Army Daily, stated in a commentary made public in Beijing that U.S. intervention in a conflict between China and Taiwan would result in "serious damage" to U.S. security interests in Asia. The military then warned that China could resort to long-range missile attacks on the United States during a regional conflict. "China is neither Iraq nor Yugoslavia but a very special country," the newspaper stated. While China is a permanent member of the Security Council of the United Nations, "on the other hand, it is a country that has certain abilities of launching strategic counterattack and the capacity of launching a long-distance strike," the article said. China's nuclear arsenal currently includes about 24 CSS-4 long-range missiles that are capable of hitting most of the United States with warheads of up to 5 megatons -- the equivalent of 5 million tons of TNT. It is building two other road-mobile ICBMs and a new class of strategic missile submarines.
Chinese leaders can continue wearing their poker faces, but we now know what they have considered and that they are preparing for the unthinkable: nuclear war.
So the question one now must ask is: will these dire events take place?
Several events have taken place since the 9/11 terrorist attack on the United States that make armed and nuclear conflict with China more likely in the coming months.
NOTE: The following strategic information, although largely still relevant, should be read with the successful February 2002 testing of a MIRVed Dongfeng-31 ICBM in mind. Continued testing and development throughout the year may quickly make the information below outdated and require new assessments.
Deployment: Silo
Range (km): 12,000 - 15,000
Re-entry Vehicle Mass (kg): 3,000 - 3,200
Warhead Yield: 2 MT (this is at variance with other reports
indicating 5 MT yield)
Launch Preparation Time: 30-60 minutes
When the DF-5 (CSS-4) was first tested in September 1971, it had a range of 10,000 to 12,000 kms which allowed it to threaten the western portions of the United States. Beginning in 1983 the Chinese inaugurated the improved DF-5A, with an increase of over 13,000 km and a more accurate guidance system. The DF-5A upgrade increased the throw-weight of the system from 3,000 kg to 3,200 kg. As with the DF-4, initially the DF-5 was stored in a horizontal position in tunnels under high mountains, and are launched immediately outside the mouth of the tunnel. The missiles must be moved into the open and fueled prior to firing, an operational mode dubbed chu men fang pao (shooting a firecracker outside the front door), with the fueling operation apparently requiring about two hours. The initial deployment of a pair of DF-5s in silos in Central China was completed in 1981. That portion of the DF-5A force that is deployed in silos could be maintained in a ready-to-fire status.
For many years almost all
sources credited China as having only four DF-5s deployed in
silos, including the authoritative 1992 treatement by John Wilson
Lewis and Hua Di, which asserted that as of 1992 only four DF-5
missiles on alert. However, more recent estimates suggest that
some 8 to 11 were deployed as of 1995, and that at least 13
missiles were deployed at the end of 1997. According to the
National Air Intelligence Center, as of 1998 the deployed DF-5
force consisted of "fewer than 25" missiles. As of
early 1999 the total deployed DF-5 force was generally estimated
at about 20 missiles. In order to enhance the survivability of
these missiles, China has constructed a large number of decoy
silos which consist of shallow holes excavations with headworks
that resemble operational silos.
The current force of DF-5A missiles is deployed with single warhead, but in November 1983 China inaugurated a DF-5 modification program to arm these ICBMs with MIRVed warheads. Technical difficulties, however, have stalled the program. The DF-5A, able to strike targets in the continental United States (CONUS), was the designated recipient of the MIRVs, although there is no evidence that they have been deployed. Some sources claim that at least four DF-5As have already been MIRVed, though it is generally asserted that while MIRVing may occur within the next few years no DF-5s have yet been fitted with MIRVed warheads. Based on the DF-5A throwweight and warhead shroud the missile could be equipped with a six reentry vehicles with each RV weighing 600 kgs (the size of the single warhead on the DF-21). The DF-5A second stage apparently has four vernier engines which reportedly fire for 190 seconds after the main missile engine cuts off. Thus the DF-5A could direct a warhead bus over a fairly large arc covering an array of aim points. But the exact status of this program cannot be confirmed based on open sources.
All CSS-4 info current as of April 15, 2000
Deployment: SLBM
(Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile)
Submarine Types: 092 Xia,
094 SSBN
Range (km): 8,000
Re-entry Vehicle Mass (kg): 700 kg
Warhead Yield: 3 or 4 MIRV @ 90 kT
1 @ 250-1000 kT
The new JL-2
(CSS-NX-4) SLBMs will carry either 3 or 4 MIRV (90 kT each) or a
single warhead with a yield of 250-1000 kT over a range of
8,000km. The missile is the sea-based variant of the DF-31
land-mobile long-range missile. Development of these missiles was
accelerated following the successful test of their common
2m-diameter solid rocket motor in late 1983. The missile is
apparently comparable in size and performance to the American
TRIDENT C-4 long-range multiple-warhead three-stage solid fuel
missile missile that is launched from submergedsubmarines.
All CSS-NX-4 info current as of September 3, 1999
For the latest on the development of the JL-2 (DF-31), now nearing completion, see final paragraph of this article below.
China is
developing land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) for theatre
warfighting and strategic attack. These cruise missiles seem to
have a relatively high development priority to ensure that
Chinese forces will have greater conventional firepower.
Long-range cruise missiles probably will also be used to bolster
the viability of Chinese military deterrence. The first LACM
design produced probably will be air-launched from Chinese
bombers and should be operational in the near future. China could
develop a sea-launched version for use on either submarines or
surface combatants. Almost no hard data is available concerning
this new weapon system, though various sources have provided
fragmentary accounts.
Chinese LACM R&D is aided by an aggressive effort to acquire
foreign cruise missile technology, particularly from Russia.
China has also stolen enabling technologies, subsystems, GPS
data, and technical data concerning cruise missile guidance
systems from the United States.
All LACM
info current as of May 1, 2000
Length: 120 m
Speed: 22 knots dive
Missiles: SLBM - 12 JL-2
Torpedoes: 6 - 533 mm bow tubes
The Xia
class proto-type: HAN
The HAN class submarine is a nuclear powered torpedo attack boat.
While this class boat greatly improved the Chinese Navy's distant
defense capabilities against enemy nuclear equipped surface
forces, one of its most significant features was that it served
as a stepping stone in the development of a Chinese nuclear
powered, submarine launched ballistic missile (SSBN) force. Such
a force would enhance Beijing's assurance of an effective
retaliatory capability, as well as strengthening her deterrent
posture.
Type 92
Xia
In 1981, China launched the Xia-class SSBN #406, derived from the
Han-class SSN, with the hull lengthened to accommodate the
missile tubes. The Type-092 became operational in 1983, though
missile firings conducted in 1984 and 1985 were unsatisfactory
due to fire control problems which were not resoloved until until
1988.

The Xia class SSBN was initially armed with 12 JL-1 (CSS-N-3) SLBMs. A major update of the class started in 1995 to fit the new JL-2 SLBM system. The upgrade was completed in 1998. The JL-2 (CSS-NX-4) SLBMs is reported to carry 3 or 4 MIRV (90kT each) or a single 250kt warhead with a range of 8,000km. Operations have been limited and the Xia has never sailed beyond Chinese regional waters. Despite a potential for operations in the Pacific Ocean, capabilities would be very limited against modern Western or Russian ASW capabilities.
Missiles: LACM
Torpedoes: 6 - 533 mm bow tubes
The ONI new Type 93 SSN will be similar to Russian second
generation designs such as the Victor III. The launch of the
initial unit of this class from the Bohai Shipyard is expected
sometime this year. As with the Song SSK, the new submarine will
incorporate a hydrodynamically efficient hull form, a single
shaft and a highly skewed 7-bladed propeller. The Type 093 is
expected to deploy submerged-launch anti-ship cruise missiles,
possibly a follow-on to the C801s, as well as the project Land
Attack Cruise Missile.
Missiles:
SLBM - 16 JL-2
Torpedoes: 6 - 533 mm bow tubes
A new design (type 094) has been planned and is expected to begin
production between 2003-2005 **. Incorporating some Russian
technology, the Type 094 is expected to be a dramatic improvement
over the sole Xia class SSBN, with improved quieting and sensor
systems, and a more reliable propulsion system. Other
improvements in sonar, propulsion, training, and the application
of quieting techniques will contribute to a significant
improvement in the capabilities of Chinas submarine fleet.
There is unconfirmed speculation that as many as a dozen of these
new boats may be eventually constructed, although other estimates
suggest that 4-6 or 6-8 boats may be constructed.
** IMPORTANT (3/13/01): PRC has now tested and developed the 094. Click to article 3/13/01, read 'Red Subs Threaten Taiwan and U.S.' section, and click to article 8/8/00, read last paragraph.

Plans to deploy
this class of nuclear powered SSBNs are said to have been delayed
due to problems with the nuclear reactor power plants. As of late
1999 there was an evident absence of public reports of the start
of construction of the Type 094 submarine. Several years would be
required for submarine construction, and probably an additional
year or two for shake-down trials of the submarine, and testing
of the JL-2 from the submarine. Each of the Type 094 SSBNs will
mount 16 JL-2 ballistic missiles (DF-31s) with a range of 8000
kms. When deployed, this missile will allow Chinese SSBNs to
target portions of the United States for the first time from
operating areas located near the Chinese coast. Equipped with the
JL-2 missiles, the Type 094 SSBNs would only have to patrol just
to the northeast of the Kuril Islands to hold about three-fourths
of the United States at risk.
All nuclear submarine info current as of December 7, 1999
TIMETABLE: Various Chinese officials have issued the following warnings regarding Taiwan:
An invasion "at any time." A US war with North Korea may indeed incite a war with China "any time."
An invasion in "three to five years" (stated in 2000) (2003 - 2005)
China predicts war with Taiwan before or by 2006. (2002 - 2006)
A final, ultimate deadline specified in the "white paper" as 2007. All, not most or some, but all foreign policy observers agree that China will never wait longer than that to take action against Taiwan.
Nostradamus provides numerous quatrains discussing war with China. Western China and Mongolia is the land of the "great King of the Mongols." But his territory also included Central Asia and Afghanistan. Ghengis Khan was unwittingly resurrected in May 1999 when the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. America has also been at war with "Ghengis Khan" in Afghanistan.
China is the "Red Adversary" who will put "the great [Pacific] Ocean to terror." China may be "the Orient" that "will be in great fear and dread" sometime during the adminstration of U.S. President George W. Bush. And a leader "born from the aquatic triplicity" (the United States, bordered by the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico) who "celebrates Thursday as his feast day" (Thanksgiving Day is always on a Thursday) will bring "a tempest to the Orient."
From all of this we can deduce only that the war will likely begin sometime during Bush's administration. It is possible that Nostradamus may be indicating that war will begin in November around the time of Thanksgiving. This would likely occur during any of the Bush administration years. Otherwise, Nostradamus provides no other dating clues.
We can also deduce that America will be the victor -- but at what cost?
My system of divination, base 7, has been indicating for some time that we would near the most dangerous period in March or April 2000.
That having passed, another vector involving both China and North Korea presented itself between November 2000 and July 2001 -- a period which has also passed.
However, the next period of danger, in keeping with what some PRC officials are saying, places the US against a far more dangerous North Korea and China in July/August 2006.
| DATELINE: January 4, 2003, 10:00 PM EST - The passing of North Korean dictator Kim Il Sung on July 9, 1994 opened a new chapter in the on-again, off-again crisis in the North Pacific which began late in 1993. What information exists concerning his shadowy only son, Kim Jong Il, should be cause for sober thought. The evidence suggests that the 61-year-old successor to one of the most repressive and isolated communist regimes in the world is a decadent and dangerous psychopath. With the threat of a second Korean War never more than another international incident away, there is every indication that North Korea's despot is more militant, audacious, and confrontational than his predecessor. This excerpt from a July 10, 1994 Los Angeles Times article by Teresa Watanabe provides us with a disturbing view of the psychological profile of Kim Jong Il: | ![]() |
TOKYO -- Kim Jong Il, North Korea's presumed leader, is said to watch public executions with frenzied joy, and amuse himself by ordering subordinates to shave their heads or strip naked. He is suspected of masterminding ... the 1983 bombing in Burma, now Myanmar, that killed 17 South Korean officials and a 1987 mid-air bombing of a South Korean airliner that killed all 115 people aboard.
Despite a nuclear freeze negotiated by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter with Kim Il Sung only a few weeks before Kim's death, numerous violations and threats to abrogate the treaty have occurred. Pyongyang finally abandoned the treaty in late December 2002, plunging the North Pacific, the Korean Peninsula, and the United States into the current crisis and setting the stage for a possible regional war -- one that could turn nuclear.
On April 22, 1997, Hwang Jang Yop, a high-ranking North Korean official who defected in early February, disclosed to the world that his country was "capable of scorching" South Korea and Japan with nuclear and chemical weapons. Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence experts also confirmed that the isolated communist nation was in the process of developing a large force of long-range Taepo Dong ballistic missiles which will be capable of reaching targets throughout much of Canada and all of the western and part of the central United States by the year 2005. Neighbouring China already possesses this capability now.
On August 31, 1998, North Korea fired a new version of the Taepo Dong I missile with a range of 1,240 miles over Japan, sparking international concern and outrage. The booster landed in the Sea of Japan and the payload, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, crashed in the Pacific Ocean. A second test launch of a medium-range Taepo Dong in 1999 reached the waters off Hawaii. Thus it would appear that the 2005 missile danger to North America posed by North Korea as projected by U.S. intelligence experts may be an uncomfortably accurate assessment.
Kim Jong Ils regime presents a continuing proliferation problem as well. On November 21, 1998, the Pentagon said North Korea was producing and marketing short range missiles to Iran, Libya, Syria, and Pakistanall capable of carrying nuclear payloads. It is well known that the North Koreans have also been supplying nuclear technology to these countries throughout the decade of the 1990s.
The North Korean military has now begun to utter direct threats against the United States as it mindlessly pushes forward with its nuclear development program and militarisation of the DMZ like so many army ants. Since December 1998, North Korean military leaders have repeatedly accused the U.S. of plotting a second war in the Korean Peninsula and warned that they are prepared to fight back. A general staff spokesman added that "it must be clearly known that there is no limit to the strike of our Peoples Army and that on this planet there is no room for escaping the strike."
Since November 1993, 750,000 North Korean troops have remained amassed near their border with the south. South Koreas army, 670,000 strong, along with the 37,000 American forces permanently stationed there, are no match against the norths army of 1.1 million soldiers, mass artillery, tanks, MiG fighter jets, and Soviet-made SCUD missiles. Most analysts agree that Pyongyang's abandonment of the 1994 nuclear freeze accord with the U.S. and Japan, the reported development of at least two nuclear warheads (possibly a dozen more in the next six months), and incursions of men and artillery in the DMZ are indications that the regime of Kim Jong Il may be planning an "opportunistic" invasion of South Korea when George W Bush launches his invasion of Iraq.
Indeed, on October 22,
1997, a senior top military defector revealed what Kim is
planning: to attack American forces in South Korea and Japan.
According to the defector, Kim believes that after he has
incurred 20,000 U.S. casualties, the United States will
"roll back its troops" and he will win the war. In the
process, he has claimed, North Korea will strike Seoul, Japan,
and Alaska with missiles equipped with chemical and nuclear
warheads. With North Korea's economy in shambles and famine
rampant throughout the country, Kim feels he has little to lose
by commencing a second Korean War. And while the masses starve,
China is seeing to it that the North Korean military is receiving
large shipments of food.
According to most U.S. military planners, a second Korean conflict would be won by the United States and would be over in 60 days: but at an horrendous price. Hundreds of thousands of casualties, tens of thousands of them American, would be the inevitable result. Also, there is the distinct possibility that North Korea might use whatever nuclear capability it already possesses against its North Pacific neighbors or to turn Seoul into "a sea of fire" as it has threatened in the past. This can be accomplished by launching medium-range missiles like the No Dong II or Taepo Dong I which are capable of reaching Tokyo or Seoul.
Two nuclear
strikes off the coast of Tokyo, Taipei, or even Los Angeles may
be indicated in the following quatrain:
Either Red China or North Korea could be responsible for the cataclysm implied by the above prediction. China currently possesses 52 nuclear submarines from which it can launch any of its roughly one hundred medium-range missiles. China also possesses four DF-5A long-range strategic missiles capable of striking the west coast of the United States and is aggressively developing its first line of CSS-4 ICBMs which will be capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. A potential scenario for Quatrain 9.48 could be one of China's DF-5As falling short of its target, striking the ocean waters a few miles just outside Los Angeles harbor. Instead of total immolation the city would be ravaged by radioactive hurricane-force winds and huge, poisonous tsunamis. What is truly frightening is that, given the threats made by Chinese officials concerning the consequences of U.S. interference, this scenario could have played itself out "in the spring" of March 23, 1996 had China decided to invade Taiwan.
However, if either China or North Korea chooses the path of nuclear terrorism, the "tempest to the Orient" by an American president forecast by Nostradamus in the following verse may well prove to be a nuclear firestorm:

Commentators have long been divided as to the intended meaning behind the "aquatic triplicity," viewing it as either an astrological clue or a metaphor for the United States which is bordered on three sides by the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico. In late 1993, former President Clinton warned the late Kim II Sung that an unconventional attack on any of his neighbors would result in the total immolation of North Korea. Nevertheless, the following quatrain suggests that successor Kim Jong Ilor worse, China's next presidentmay desire to carry out the unthinkable:
Quatrain 3.1
Once again we are faced with "terror" which would certainly come "from the sky" via land-launched and sea-launched nuclear missiles. Is it possible that Quatrain 10.72 is somehow linked with this prophecy? If the color red in this instance is being used to represent communism, then the ocean upon which this red antagonist wreaks havoc must be the Pacific. The only nuclear communist states in that part of the world currently are China and North Korea.
This bodes ill for the future of other nations positioned around the "great Ocean"including Japan, Australia, and the United States.
But what of Russia which also is situated on the Pacific Ocean? Let us hope that a Sino-Russian military axis against America and her Pacific allies is never forged.